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China's tariffs on US oil would disrupt $1 billion monthly business

22 June 2018

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was down 0.6% to $74.92 a barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange. That prompted Trump to call on OPEC to cut production, tweeting in April and again this month that "OPEC is at it again" by allowing oil prices to rise. The amount of increased oil output that is being discussed in the framework of the OPEC + agreement is fully correlated with the decline made by Venezuela in the last 1.5 years.

Last year, OPEC members unanimously agreed on the oil price of 60 US dollars per barrel, by cutting oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 32.5 million bpd.

Smith says US oil production is poised to hit 12 million barrels a day next year.

"We believe that OPEC will act like a central bank going forward, raising and lowering production as necessary with an objective of keeping global oil inventories at normal, 5-year levels", Thummel said.

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Crude inventories fell 3 million barrels in the week to June 15 to 430.6 million, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 1.9 million barrels.

The two major producers have kept a ceiling in place since late 2016, which has helped ease a supply glut and lift prices, which had fallen to multi-year lows.

"There is an element of self-preservation in seeking to do this, as while most oil producers prefer higher prices they will also want to avoid a scenario where prices reach a level where demand drops off sharply, thus triggering a global slowdown, as well as accelerating the push for renewable (energy)", he said.

"There will be an OPEC conference in Vienna on 22 June.Whenever we have met OPEC members, we have told them that crude oil prices should be controlled, reasonable, responsible and should meet demand". Iran and Venezuela production for example continue to dwindle due to USA sanctions.

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Due to the staunch opposition to any production increase from the faction led by Iran and Venezuela, analysts expect this week's OPEC meeting to be a very hard one, comparing it to the 2011 meeting, which the then Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi described as "the worst OPEC meeting of all time", Commerzbank commodities analyst Carsten Fritsch told Reuters. These numbers suggest that United States and handful of other non-OPEC countries will more than meet global demand. "A meaningful increase in long-haul flows from some of the key OPEC exporters would go a long way in turning the crude tanker market around, especially since it will impact the physical market as well as provide a boost to the all-important market psychology".

Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia have agreed to extend their oil partnership indefinitely, with the agreement stipulating that they could move to regulate oil production at any moment, TASS reports, quoting Energy Minister Alexander Novak. Russia, under pressure from domestic oil companies keen to develop new fields, has said the total increase should be up to 1.5 million barrels. China imports about 365,000 barrels a day of USA crude.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday announced tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports, effective July 6.

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China's tariffs on US oil would disrupt $1 billion monthly business