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New Gulf of Mexico Storm Brewing on Horizon

05 October 2017

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories for Tropical Depression 16 that formed Wednesday morning in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

The initial track from the National Hurricane Center takes this storm east of our area.

Check The Palm Beach Post's live storm tracking map.

For Invest 90L to move northward toward the northern Gulf Coast there will need to be a weakness in that ridge.

The gulf's water temperatures are still in the mid 80s - well warm enough to promote tropical development, Norman said.

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The long-term forecast showed the storm reaching the U.S. Gulf coast by Sunday.

The depression will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Nate over the next several hours, the NHC reported.

"However, it is too early to specify the timing or magnitude of these impacts", forecasters said Wednesday morning.

"But, wet weather and perhaps windy conditions look like a good bet in South MS for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday even if neither of those disturbances develop into tropical systems".

I would say it is doubtful that the system becomes a hurricane due to dry air west of the path, and westerly shear.

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We typically see up to two gyres like this one set up each year, and they can spawn tropical storms in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins, sometimes in each basin at the same time.

In addition to the risk from the current tropical system near Central America, there is another area to watch toward the middle of the month.

Any weather impacts to Gainesville will depend on the exact speed and track of the tropical system, which is still largely unknown.

The hurricane season still has miles to go - all the way to November 30, in fact, although activity tends to cool with the weather.

"I don't think it is going to head toward us, but we are continuing to monitor it".

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New Gulf of Mexico Storm Brewing on Horizon