Pakistan Ledger

Flanked by Admiral Mullen and in front of the great seal of America President Obama spoke from Westpoint. He started with the reasons for going to war in Afghanistan. He mentioned  the world approbation 98-0, 420-1. NATO invoked article five. The UN security allowed all necessary steps to defeat the attackers of 911.He also told them that the war in Iraq is coming to an end next summer. He mentioned “safe havens” in Pakistan. Taliban has increasingly taken large swathes of territory while Deconstructing defeating and destroying the Taliban.

“Afghanistan is not lost, but it has moved backward”. “There is no imminent threat to the government of Afghanistan, but” it is in danger. “General McChrystal has reported that the security situation is more serious than he had anticipated” so he said he is “sending 30,000 troops for 18 months”. Then he said “the troops will begin coming back home”.

With the bluster one has to analyze his words and his actions. Pakistan and Afghanistan is the”Epicenter of violent extremism”. “London, Amman and Bali” have been attacked by Al-Qaeda. The “extremists seek nuclear weapons and will use them”.

Our goal is to “deny Al-Qaeda a safe havens in their safe havens” (a not so oblique reference to Pakistani FATA), “deny Al-Qaeda the ability to overthrow the government in Kabul, support and strengthen the Afghan government. The 30,000 will secure the population centers. Train the Afghans.

“Just like we have done in Iraq, we will responsibly draw down the war in Iraq”. President Karzai said the right things in his inauguration. The corrupt need to be accountable. He also talked about expanding the Kabul government. He said that the Taliban who abandon violence and respect human right would be included in the new government. Hasten the day when the forces will leave.

We will act that the full recognition that success in Afghanistan is dependent on a partnership with Pakistan. We need a strategy to work on both sides of the border.

of the border. The Pakistani army has waged an offensive in Swat and Waziristan. In the past we defined our relationship with Pakistan on narrow objectives. We will strengthen on Pakistan “long after the guns fall silent”. President Obama than bragged about being the largest international supporter for Pakistani displaced people.

He tried to rebut the accusation that Afghanistan is not another Vietnam–cutting losses. Unlike Vietnam the Taliban do not have broad based support. Unlike Vietnam we were not attacked.

He discussed the opposition to the war and those who challenged his “temporary surge”. He said those who want the current state to continue will be facing a slow deterioration of the situation on the ground.

He objected to who who support a decade long nation building project in Afghanistan. Absence of a timeline destroys the goals—”America has no interest in nation building”. President Obama recognized the limitations of America. He said that he recognized what American can “achieve at a reasonable cost”. This places parameters around what the US military can or cannot do.

Lastly he touched about the economic costs of the war. We cannot afford these wars. He said that the two wars cost America $1 Trillion Dollars and this surge would cost $30 Billion.  “We must build prosperity at home”. He said prosperity at home builds American power and the ability to have troops. He implied that lack of prosperity at home diminishes US power. Counter-insurgency is what General McChrystal wanted. He got a counter-terror war in Afghanistan.

He said he saw an enduring war beyond Pakistan and Afghanistan–in Yemen and Somalia. “We will have to deal with Failed States”. The end of the speech was peppered with motherhood and apple pie.

The speech was an admission of American defeat in Afghanistan. The militants will respond with their own surge and monitor where the new troops are going. The surge will take six months to get the troops there–just after the Spring offensive of the Taliban. The new troops will challenge the Spring offensive and then begin targeting the areas in which the Taliban are well entrenched–in Helmund, in Paktia, and all along the Pakistani border.

President Obama did not mention a regional approach. Nor did he mention Kashmir as the root cause of problems. He did not threaten Pakistan. He did not mention Bharat (aka India).

Mullah Omar is probably smiling right now–victory in his sight.